over the last 30 years, China has hitched its economy to the industrial world, exporting cheap goods to the United States and other developed nations, building up an enormous trade surplus that will hit about $400 billion this year. As those industrial economies sputter, China is now in a position to pick up some of the slack: selling more of its own goods at home and buying more from the rest of the world.
To get China’s consumers to spend, the government will need to spend more at home, investing in public works projects and providing more social benefits — including health insurance and pensions — so its citizens don’t feel they have to save so much for a rainy day.
This is clearly in Beijing’s interest, though China’s leaders are still clinging to the old export strategy.
China is already feeling the impact of a slower world economy. Both economic growth and export growth have braked sharply. The slowdown threatens job creation, direly needed to absorb millions of rural Chinese seeking employment in the cities.
Over the summer the Chinese central bank put an end to its short-lived policy of allowing the yuan to gradually appreciate against the dollar, a policy aimed at reducing inflation that would also raise the price of Chinese exports. Last week, the Chinese government announced that it would increase its rebates on taxes charged to exporters — giving them a further boost.
But trying to capture a bigger share of shrinking markets in the United States, Europe and Japan — just as they tip into recession — won’t provide China much of an economic lift. What it will do is contribute to the slowdown in the rest of the world by hogging demand. China would get much more bang for the buck if it focused on stimulating its own domestic markets for goods and services.
Given the desperate mess Washington has made of its own financial system, few countries are eager to take American advice these days. After years of Congressional China-bashing, Beijing may be especially resistant.
Still, it is in China’s interest to change. China has grown 13-fold over the last 30 years, thanks to hypercharged exports and white hot investment. But its economy is lopsided. Consumer spending amounts to little over a third of economic production, probably the lowest share in any country in the world. And its overwhelming dependence on exports has made it overwhelmingly vulnerable to changes in world demand.
The government in Beijing, which is running a huge budget surplus, also has money to spare.
The government has announced some measures to fuel domestic spending —including a tax cut on home purchases to revive an ailing housing market and a vague plan to invest in public works. But it must do more to unlock the savings of its citizens and encourage them to spend.
To do that it needs to rebuild the system of social insurance that fell apart when state-owned industries collapsed and were replaced by the private sector. Government investment in things like health care, education and pensions would help develop China’s middle class and its domestic market.
A boost to consumer spending would undoubtedly help China weather the economic storm. But by raising Chinese imports and reducing its dependence on exports, it would also help the rest of the world.
随着世界坠入衰退的深渊，中国的经济政策将影响到其他国家以何种方式衰退。
在过去的30年中，中国经济搭上了工业的世界班车，它向美国和其他发达国家出口价廉的物品，并建立了规模庞大的贸易顺差，而今年的顺差将达到4000亿美元。随着工业经济陷入低迷，中国处在一个接受不景气的新位置上：在国内卖得更多，从国外买得更多（而非出口更多，内需更少——译者注）。
为了让中国消费者消费，政府需要在国内开支，投资于公共建设工程，并提供更多的社会福利——包括医疗保险和养老金——这将让市民不会再为不测而存钱。
尽管中国领导人依然倾向旧的出口策略，但上述的方向显然是北京方面的重心所在了。
中国已经感受到了放缓的世界经济的凉意。经济增长和出口增长都有大幅度的下滑。下滑的经济威胁到了就业形势，目前就业迫切需要吸纳数百万在城市打工的农民工。
今年夏天，中国央行结束了人民币对美元逐步升值的短期政策，这一政策旨在减缓导致中国出口产品价格上涨的通货膨胀。上周，中国政府宣布对出口企业增加退税——旨在给予他们进一步的激励。
但是，试图从萎缩的美、欧、日市场——如今正在陷入衰退——中占有更大的份额并不会给中国带来多大的经济收益。现在要做的是，通过激活需求来挽救全球经济的下滑。如果中国把重点放在激活本国内需和服务方面，那么中国会收获明显的降压效益。
当下，在由华盛顿自己金融系统制造的、令人绝望的混乱中，极少数国家会采取美国的建议。在中国经历了多年的国会的猛击之后，北京可能更有抵抗能力。
中国的兴趣依然是改变。在过去的30年间，受惠于快速出口与国外投资热的影响，中国经济增长了13倍，但是经济结构却不平衡。消费支出金额很少，只占经济产出的1/3，可能是世界上消费支出比最少的国家。它对出口过度的依赖使它很容易受到世界需求变化的冲击。
手中握有大笔预算顺差的北京中央政府，也有钱进行支付。
政府宣布了一些旨在刺激内需的措施——包括减少房产交易税的征收，以拯救患病的房地产市场，以及针对公共事务的、模糊的投资计划。但是要撬开市民储蓄，鼓励他们消费还需要更多措施。
为了达到目的，政府需要重建社会保证体系，以保证国有工业崩溃时的个人安全，并代替私人部门职能。政府在医疗保障、教育和养老方面的投资，将帮助中国的中产阶级和内需市场的发展。
对消费支出的刺激无疑将帮助中国平安渡过金融风暴。但是增加中国进口、减少其对出口的依赖性，也将对世界各国有所助益。
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